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Home » Headline, Latest Evidence, Planets

12% Chance Of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm

Submitted by on February 29, 2012 – 9:16 AM6 Comments | 601 views

Predictive Science in San Diego, California, has released a statement, more of a prediction actually, stating that we have greater than a 10% chance in experiencing a solar megastorm. One so big, that it has many researches believing  that something that big would leave our modern world in shambles. FOR DECADES! Get the sunblock out people!

Pete Riley, senior scientist at Predictive Science recently made the following statement on Space Weather:

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and >30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst < −850 nT) occurring within the next decade is ∼12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting. -AGU.org

The following article on Wired.com talks about Mr. Riley’s estimate and the famous Carrington event of 1859:

Source: Wired.com

The Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance of experiencing an enormous megaflare erupting from the sun in the next decade. This event could potentially cause trillions of dollars’ worth of damage and take up to a decade to recover from.

Such an extreme event is considered to be relatively rare. The last gigantic solar storm, known as the Carrington Event, occurred more than 150 years ago and was the most powerful such event in recorded history.

That a rival to this event might have a greater than 10 percent chance of happening in the next 10 years was surprising to space physicist Pete Riley, senior scientist at Predictive Science in San Diego, California, who published the estimate in Space Weather on Feb. 23.

“Even if it’s off by a factor of two, that’s a much larger number than I thought,” he said.

Earth’s sun goes through an 11-year cycle of increased and decreased activity. During solar maximum, it’s dotted with many sunspots and enormous magnetic whirlwinds erupt from its surface. Occasionally, these flares burst outward from the sun, spewing a mass of charged particles out into space

Small solar flares happen quite often whereas very large ones are infrequent, a mathematical distribution known as a power law. Riley was able to estimate the chance of an enormous solar flare by looking at historical databases and calculating the relation between the size and occurrence of solar flares.

The biggest solar event ever seen was the Carrington Event, which occurred on Sept. 1, 1859. That morning, astronomer Richard Carrington watched an enormous solar flare erupt from the sun’s surface, emitting a particle stream at the Earth traveling more than 4 million miles per hour.

When they hit the Earth’s atmosphere, those particles generated the intense ghostly ribbons of light known as auroras. Though typically relegated to the most northerly and southerly parts of the planet, the atmospheric phenomenon reached as far as Cuba, Hawaii, and northern Chile. People in New York City gathered on sidewalks and rooftops to watch “the heavens … arrayed in a drapery more gorgeous than they have been for years,” as The New York Times described it.

Auroras may be beautiful, but the charged particles can wreak havoc on electrical systems. At the time of the Carrington Event, telegraph stations caught on fire, their networks experienced major outages and magnetic observatories recorded disturbances in the Earth’s field that were literally off the scale.

In today’s electrically dependent modern world, a similar scale solar storm could have catastrophic consequences. Auroras damage electrical power grids and may contribute to the erosion of oil and gas pipelines. They can disrupt GPS satellites and disturb or even completely black out radio communication on Earth.

During a geomagnetic storm in 1989, for instance, Canada’s Hydro-Quebec power grid collapsed within 90 seconds, leaving millions without power for up to nine hours.

The potential collateral damage in the U.S. of a Carrington-type solar storm might be between $1 trillion and $2 trillion in the first year alone, with full recovery taking an estimated four to 10 years, according to a 2008 report from the National Research Council.

“A longer-term outage would likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation, communication, banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration,” the NRC report said.

But such possibilities likely represent only the worst-case scenario, said Robert Rutledge, lead of the forecast office at the NOAA/National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center. The potential dangers might be significantly less, since power companies are aware of such problems and can take action to mitigate them.

For instance, companies may store power in areas where little damage is expected or bring on additional lines to help with power overloads. This is assuming, of course, that they are given enough warning as to the time and location of a solar storm’s impact on the Earth. Satellites relatively close to Earth are required to measure the exact strength and orientation of a storm.

“It’s like being able to see a cyclone coming but not knowing the wind speed until it hits your boat 50 miles off the coast,” Rutledge said.

Source: Wired.com

 

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I'm a writer, a runner, and a hell of a coffee drinker residing in Los Angeles. I'm currently working on a book about Doris Bither and her terrifying account of a haunting in Culver City, California. The case was dubbed "The Entity" and it stands to be one of the most controversial cases ever to be studied by parapsychologists.

  • Bubba Fets

    This is exactly what the US remote viewers, (Major Ed Dames et. al) have been talking about for years now.
    According to them, they have foreseen a giant solar flare/storm that will more or less eradicate all life from this planet.
    I have no links at the moment, but google “Ed Dames”, and I think you´ll find what I´m talking about…
    —-
    Ok, I found this just now, for your convenience: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg0HpLeTP4k

    I don´t know what to believe, but it´s a little scary though.

  • Ophu

    Or you could die tonight of a brain embolism.

    While such phenomena as these can be fun to speculate about, I would avoid worrying about them to the point where I’m losing sleep. There’s really very little an individual can do about it anyway. One might as well worry about ghosts in the frozen food section at the supermarket, presumably looking for specials on stir-fry potato wedges.

  • John Galt

    Solar activity has ALWAYS been a key element in the tech industry, particularly in the communications area. In Defense speak, there are two “specialties” that deal with the solar cycles and space events: the Combat Systems, Command and Control, Communications, Computers, and Intelligence specialty (shortened to C5I for short) and the Space Warfare specialists (mostly USAF and some USN).
    The US science and defense community is well aware of the 11 year sun cycle; so much so, that they prepare for each spike by rugged using certain equipment and, if unable to protect, shutting the piece of gear off all together. There is nothing new in this 12% megastorm prediction – the services, NASA, and NOAA probably knew about it years ago. Now, for those among us predicting the eradication of all life on planet Earth because of a 12% chance of a massive Solar Flare burning us into oblivion: don’t forget, we have the magnetosphere and ionosphere for shielding; and the worst case scenario, the Carrington Event, didn’t kill anyone. I think we’re ready for the worst, and we have some pretty good engineers…

    I think we’re OK; no need for the remote viewers…

    Good talking to you all, have a good evening –

    John Galt

  • Ophu

    On the other hand, if anyone should worry about it, it should be those in the tech industry. We’ll just leave it to you guys. Have fun. :)

  • Bubba Fets

    No sleep lost here, though the stir-fry ghosts scare me.

  • The Oshmar

    The only thing that worries me about solar flares is the overload it could do to a power grid, has anyone heard the term “painted rust” well if you haven’t you have now, it’s pretty much the best way to describe out power grids of the world.